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Syriza's
electoral success marks the start of the first major battle against
austerity. The whole continent should will them to win
The clear winner of the recent Greek elections is Syriza,
a coalition of leftwing organisations active for several years. The
fascist Golden Dawn party has also made stunning gains but its rise,
disturbing as it might be, is neither the main outcome of the elections,
nor yet a major threat to Greek society. Political momentum belongs to
Syriza. If it gets its act together, it could help resolve the crisis
and give a boost to the European anti-austerity movement.
Syriza,
led by Alexis Tsipras, centre, 'stands every chance of … forming a
coalition government of anti-bailout forces' in Greece. Photograph:
Simela Pantzartzi/EPA
The two staple parties of Greek government – Pasok and New
Democracy – have been trounced for bringing the country to this pass
over four decades, and for implementing the bailout agreements. The
Greek electorate has clearly stated what it does not want: old politics
and the so-called rescue by the troika of the EU, the International
Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.
During the past two years a parade of mediocre Greek politicians
have pretended to negotiate with the troika, while decrying their own
country as "corrupt". They were backed by technical experts terrified
at the thought of displeasing the lenders to Greece. Some of the
politicians and experts were people who had also handled the disastrous
Greek entry into European monetary union. The result was two bailout agreements, in May 2010 and March 2012
– monuments to bad economics and social callousness. By the end of
2012 austerity will have led to contraction of the Greek economy by
20%, a jump in unemployment toward 25%, a full-blown humanitarian
crisis in the urban centres, and a completely unmanageable public debt.
Greece is dying on its feet. Meanwhile its old political class
twitters on about participating in the European "game" and making
structural reforms that will bring growth in the future.
Syriza has caused an earthquake by denouncing March's bailout. It
has called for a moratorium on debt payments, an international
commission to audit Greek debt, aggressive debt write-offs, deep
redistribution of income and wealth, bank nationalisation, and a new
industrial policy to rejuvenate the manufacturing sector. These
measures are exactly what the Greek economy needs. Implementing them
depends entirely on rejecting the recent bailout and stopping payments
on the debt.
Syriza believes that the measures can be introduced while the
country remains within the eurozone. It has been unwilling to call for
Greek exit, thus increasing its appeal to voters who worry about the
aftermath of exit and believe that the euro is integral to the European
identity of Greeks. In my view, and that of many other economists, it
would be impossible for Greece to stay in the eurozone if it went down
this path. Moreover, exit would be both necessary and beneficial to the
economy in the medium term, and remains the most likely outcome for
Greece. If Syriza really wanted to contribute to solving the crisis, it
should get itself ready for this eventuality.
Nonetheless, the pressing issue at the moment is to free the
country from the stranglehold of debt and austerity. As long as Syriza
is prepared to take action to achieve these aims, and the Greek people
wish to give it the benefit of the doubt on the euro, its role can be
positive. At the very least, it offers a chance for Greece to avoid a
complete disaster that might truly lead to the rise of fascism.
The current round of domestic political negotiations
is unlikely to lead to a government being formed, especially one that
could continue to implement the terms of the bailout. There will
probably be new elections in the near future and Syriza stands every chance of winning decisively,
thus forming a coalition government of the anti-bailout forces. But
for this, Syriza should realise its own limitations, and actively seek
to create the broad political front that Greece needs.
It is important to seek unity at all times, avoiding both gloating
and the ancient factionalism of the Greek left. Syriza will need the
active co-operation of the rest of the left if it is to muster
sufficient forces to deal with the storm ahead. It is equally important
to improve its appeal to experienced and knowledgeable people across
society, for it will need many more in its ranks.
Finally, if there is a new government led by Syriza, it will rely
on the support of people across Europe to tackle the catastrophe
inflicted on Greece by the eurozone crisis. The first major battle
against austerity is about to begin in Greece, and all European people
have an interest in winning it.
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